While psephologists and political scientists undertake that exercise, two important determinants have emerged. The first is the role of cash transfers and second is the emergence of women as a decisive class of voters.
It is difficult to disentangle their roles in deciding poll outcomes, but the fact that these have been offered as explanations by experts, and in some cases by political parties themselves, necessitates a discussion.
While the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra offered ₹1,500 per month to women aged 21 to 65 years, the Maiya Samman Yojana in Jharkhand offered ₹1,000 per month to women aged 21 to 49 years. Even in Haryana, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government promised ₹2,100 per month to women.
West Bengal government’s Lakshmir Bhandar provides ₹1,200 to SC/ST women and ₹1,200 to all other women above age 18. The Mukhyamantri Ladli Bahna Yojana of Madhya Pradesh offers ₹1,250 per month to women in the state. In almost all cases, the schemes were initiated just before elections and the incumbent governments returned to power.
There are now 10 states that have either implemented or announced such schemes. The list includes Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Himachal Pradesh.
On the point of women emerging as a separate category in themselves across caste, class, religion and region, there may be some truth to it. There is evidence, even though anecdotal and weak, that political parties or leaders seen espousing causes that appeal to women are favoured by female voters.
It may be alcohol prohibition in Bihar or free bus rides in Delhi. That issues related to women’s empowerment are getting political attention is a welcome sign in a society where women have largely been invisible in the political sphere and many other spaces.
However, what is attracting attention now is the quick-fix of cash transfers. While this may be new in the case of women, such transfers have been a preferred option even earlier, most notably to farmers as a tool to reduce discontent.
Started by Telangana and followed by Odisha, these went national with the PM-KISAN scheme announced just before the 2019 general elections.
Cash transfers are preferred by the political class as they are tangible, reach beneficiaries directly and are easy to implement. Beneficiaries welcome them as they do not impose any requirements, are available for spending on whatever they want, and bypass the local and state-level bureaucracies.
The principal issue, however, is not their ease of deployment as a tool, but their relative usefulness.
Spending on most schemes that are essential for women has not increased or remains low. The Central government’s contribution to widow pension has remained stagnant at ₹200 per month since its launch in 2006. Benefits as part of the maternity entitlement scheme have also stayed unchanged since its launch almost a decade ago.
The majority of front-line workers in education and health are women, functioning as anganwadi workers and helpers, mid-day-meal cooks and ASHA workers, providing essential services to citizens.
Millions of these workers get less than state or central minimum wages, and must suffer poor working conditions. The rural employment guarantee scheme, which has helped narrow the gender wage gap, is underfunded, with rather low wages.
This is not to argue that cash transfers do not contribute to women’s empowerment or welfare. Even a small amount adds to household welfare and the fact that women get the agency to spend the money leads to empowerment, even if it’s notional. But easily made transfers come at a cost, fiscal and otherwise.
In states with poor fiscal health, the added expenditure burden has hurt investment and left little money for spending on health, education and social development. The electoral success of such schemes has also led to competitive populism, with political parties outdoing one another on handouts without evaluating the relative benefits.
The emergence of women’s issues in politics marks a significant moment. But throwing money at problems is unlikely to resolve a deep tangle of patriarchy, social exclusion and other disadvantages faced by women.
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