Asian Markets Cautious Amid Geopolitical Tensions: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks were poised for a mixed opening on Monday as traders grappled with continued political upheaval in South Korea and as investors awaited signs of fresh stimulus from Beijing. Oil will be closely watched after the Syrian government was toppled. 

Equity futures in Australia and Hong Kong fell while those in Japan and mainland China climbed. US stocks advanced on Friday with the S&P 500 notching its 57th record close as a monthly jobs report indicated the labor market is cooling enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month. The dollar was steady against major peers in early trading.

Investors are readying themselves this week for a final flurry of central bank decisions across four continents, a key meeting of Chinese officials and US inflation data in an effort to pad returns for the year and help guide positions into 2025. A gauge of global stocks has returned more than 20% this year, on track for a second straight outsized return, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It will be a lively week ahead with event risk all over the shop,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne wrote in a note to clients. “A hot US CPI print may not necessarily derail a cut at next week’s FOMC meeting” but it may effect the outlook for further easing and move the dollar.

In Asia, South Korean assets may move as some lawmakers push for President Yoon Suk Yeol to resign amid mounting public anger of the brief imposition of martial law last week. Opposition lawmakers said they would push for another impeachment vote on Yoon after the first one failed. 

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China’s daily fixing of the yuan will be parsed after the central bank signaled support for the currency through a series of strong fixings last week. That comes ahead of consumer and producer price data that may point to sluggish demand in the world’s second largest economy and add to expectations of more fiscal support following the Central Economic Work Conference. 

“There is a reasonable case to be made that China may have been keeping its powder dry pending US trade policy changes from January,” Barclays strategists led by Themistoklis Fiotakis write in a note to clients. Given there’s scope for some dollar easing, “yuan depreciation pressures should also ease temporarily given PBOC resistance at about 7.30” per dollar.

Traders will also be monitoring oil after Saudi Arabia cut prices for buyers in Asia by more than expected after OPEC further delayed a lift to production. Moves could be tempered as markets assess the fallout from the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government by opposition groups, a major blow to key backers Russia and Iran which may reshape the region as conflicts persist.

Treasuries extended their recent rebound on Friday, with investors getting a reprieve from a selloff that crested in November as Donald Trump’s presidential victory raised inflation risks. Since then, however, yields have drifted lower on speculation the Fed will ease policy again at this month’s gathering, its last before Trump takes office, as it tries to steer the economy to a soft landing.

In response to possible tensions between the incoming administration and the US central bank, Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that he has no plans to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell once he returns to the White House. Markets are now pricing a roughly 80% chance the Fed cuts at its December meeting, though officials have cautioned on the pace of further cuts. 

The Fed’s projections already offer a gradual pace of easing “yet even slower cuts and potentially a pause could be warranted,” Societe Generale economists including Klaus Baader wrote in a note to clients. “We expect a 25 basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting but even that is dependent on upcoming CPI.”

Elsewhere this week, Australia’s central bank will likely keep its key interest rate on hold amid indications the nation’s economy is beginning to soften. The European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank are all expected to ease policy, while the Brazilian central bank may hike to arrest inflation pressures. 

Some of the main moves in markets:

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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